SÃM'S SPREADS

Hello FSS, we are back with another week of picks. I’ll tell ya what, last week was a tough one. We went 1-2, BUT I do have good news. We ended in the green. Browns were a quick 3 unit bet which put us at +0.4 units due to the juice we had on the other two games. Even better news is if you faded me and put one unit on each game you would be up .8 units. So either way you look at it, everyone is a winner. Some might call that communism, I would just say it makes me a man of the people.

As we keep going through all these fun growing pains let me continue to give you more information about myself, so you have an idea of where my biases stand. I am a Pats fan (that is right deal with it). It would be safe to say I bet on them every week in every which way, game, 1st half, 2nd half, but I will never tell you to take them on this blog unless I feel very confident in them. On the flip side I will never tell you to bet against the Pats, so feel free to do that on your own, but I wouldn’t recommend. Other than that, there are no real biases towards gambling on or gambling against any other team. Pats are better than everyone anyway so there is nothing I hold against a so-called “rival.”

Anyway, onto week 13. I absolutely despise the board this week, I can see every game going every which way. Lucky for you all, I normally do best when I do not know what I am doing, so let’s dive in:

THE PICKS

Eagles @ Dolphins (+10)

Let me tell you right now, the Eagles flat out STINK. Carson Wentz is bad, the Eagles have no WRs, the offensive line is hurt, and the play calling is not what we are used to seeing out of Doug Pederson. But let me tell you something about this line; it screams take the Eagles. The line started at 7.5 and has skyrocketed to 10. People are betting the Eagles and Vegas is trying to get people to even it out, begging for everyone to bet on the Dolphins. You know who stinks more than the Eagles, the Dolphins. Just god-awful all the way around. We are getting into December where we normally see Fitzmagic lose all of his lust and a health(ier) Eagles defense will probably force a couple turnovers here. I see the Eagles coming back and tying the cowboys for first in the division with a rout. Buy the hook. 2 units.

Pick: Eagles -9.5 (-115)

Jets @ Bengals (+4)

Oh boy, what a garbage game we have on our hands here. Both teams are absolute garbage, but the Jets are hot? Big 34-3 win over a surprisingly solid Raiders team last week and their 22 year old QB celebrated by doing 22 year old things and making out with chicks all over the city that never sleeps. The Bengals, we know the deal, they are a dumpster fire. Losing all 11 games they have played this season, swapping QBs in and out every other week, it is a mess. So this pick is going to surprise you here, but we are taking the Bengals. Similar to the Broncos bet last week (which I’m sad to report back, didn’t hit), this line makes no sense to me. The Jets seem to have it all working for them while the Bengals do not. So we are flipping the script and taking the Bengals to cover. 1 unit.

Pick: Bengals +4 (-120)

Bucs @ Jaguars (Over/Under 47.5)

Here we have another line that makes no sense to me. The Bucs have an average of something around 59 points scored in all games they play, while the Jaguars got torched for 42 points last week against a Tennessee team that doesn’t tend to put up high point totals. 62% of the bets placed were on the total have been on the over and this total was originally set at 49. Somehow, someway even with all the bets placed on it, the total has dropped to 47.5. This means two things to my stupid brain; A. Vegas is up to their same old bullshit and are trying to continue getting people to bet on the over, so they can make money on the under or B. The sharps are on the under. I like sharps, I want to be a sharp, let’s make a sharp bet. Bye the hook. 1 unit.

Pick: Under 48 (-120)

YTD: 1-2 +0.4 units

As always, if you end up having any complaints about the above please forward them to @FSS_JoeWalker on twitter. If things somehow end up going well, give me a shout @saambodytoldme, also on the twitter.