The Degenerate Digest v.160
King of the ALPS. 4-1 really got me thinking of running away and never looking back. Just only posting alt line parlays for the rest of my life. However, those odds are a touch less juicy, and I want to make sure we stay on our toes in other facets of the gambling world. Have no fear dear degenerate, the ALPS will return one day. They’re not mountains, they’re waves.
We’ve hit the point in the season where conference games are fully under way, and we’re starting to get more data on how these teams are shaping up on both sides of the ball. When considering this week's theme, it was hard not to look back and consider these data points. Is this team stopping the run? Are they getting pressure on the quarterback? What does the offensive line continuity look like? Where do they stand with first down conversions? All of these questions have answers. I’m not saying I have them, but like - they do have answers. These answers, should we have them, can point us in the direction of how both sides of the ball should generally fare. If we know that, we should have a good idea how many points will be given up, and how many points will be taken away. And so, for our first October slate, we’re rocking - Octotals.
(7) Alabama @ (16) Mississippi State: Under 61.5
Two sophomore quarterbacks lighting it up. Keelon Russell and Kamario Taylor have some bright futures ahead of them. But when I look at this game, I see two sophomore quarterbacks coming into the biggest game of the season thus far. I’m not saying I don’t believe in them to have decent days, but I can easily see this being a slower start with the adrenaline pumping. The Bulldogs haven’t seen a defense like Bama’s. Bama is still working on improving its rushing attack. Clock management game for the Tide. Kamario may have some pop in various moments, but keeping him off the field for extended stretches is exactly how Kalen DeBoer wants this game to operate.
Final Score: Alabama 32, Mississippi State 24
Michigan @ Minnesota: Under 43.5
You see PJ Fleck being an absolute psycho wiping the blood from his own player and smearing it all over his face? That’s a football coach right there.
You see Michigan lose the game on a last second TD from IOWA!? When has Iowa ever gone like 90 yards with a minute left in the game to score a walkoff tuddy? That’s a football game right there.
These two teams kinda stink. I lean Michigan to continue building offensively, and to be fair, regardless of the last minute touchdown drive last week - they didn’t really give up much else defensively in that game.
I fully expect a classic October Big Ten box score of punt, punt, punt, punt, FG, punt, punt.
Final Score: Michigan 23, Minnesota 17
(8) Florida @ (25) Missouri: Over 57.5
What am I missing here? We have a Gator’s squad that’s averaging 53.5 PPG, and a Tiger’s squad that’s averaging 35.75 PPG. I just don’t understand this line. It could be a bad thing that I don’t understand this line. Not going to overthink it. Both defenses are.. okay? Pretty sure Mizzou is without their two top edge rushers. And Jadan Baugh is on pace to beat every single rushing record ever recorded. Cannot overthink this.
Final Score: Florida 100, Missouri 95
Oregon State @ Colorado State: Over 62
I know they have not been included in the main slate thus far, but I have been betting on both these teams since the start of the season. Colorado State overs, Oregon State ATS. Both 4-0 thus far. If my math is correct on two teams starting off these lines 4-0, that would be 8-0. Shoutout math. And shoutout both of these teams. If this bet doesn’t cash, and Oregon State also doesn’t cover the spread, it’s your fault not mine. And I’ll never share a dirty secret heater team again.
Final Score: Oregon State 37, Colorado State 30
Cincinnati @ Arizona: Over 55.5
What is the more intimidating cat? A Bearcat? Or a Wildcat? On one hand, bears are pretty intimidating. On the other hand, Wild can mean a whole slew of things - some of which are also intimidating. The Bearcats are quietly 4-0 and have really found some strides in the running game. They also haven’t really been tested, unless you consider the Wildcats of Kansas State a worthy opponent. Do the Bearcats have the Wildcats number? Noah Fifita would like a word.
Final Score: Arizona 31, Cincinnati 27
No #PremiumMemberTickleTeaser this week, but I do have a new rule to bet on any college game before noon on Saturday (isn’t the whole point of Big Noon Kickoff to be the first game of the day?). Today we have Memphis on the road against Charlotte kicking off at 11am EST. DM’s are open.
Running Record: (391-329-7)
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